Animadversions.

The weblog of Joshua Drescher

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Oscar prognosticatin’

February 19th, 2009 · No Comments · Art, Rants

It’s nearly Oscar time again. Here are my thoughts on the major categories. For each, I’ve posted who I think SHOULD win and who I think WILL win (often not the same person).

Category: Best Picture

Doubt should win, even though it wasn’t nominated.

Frost/Nixon was good, but not nomination-worthy. Benjamin Button was - at best - mediocre and it’s shameful that it was even considered, much less nominated. Wall-E and The Dark Knight were better than Frost/Nixon or Benjamin Button. Of the surviving pictures, Slumdog Millionaire was probably the best.

Who SHOULD win: So, I suppose, my technical pick is Slumdog Millionaire

Who WILL win: Slumdog Millionaire

Category: Actor in a Leading Role

I don’t have a problem with any of the nominees here, though Pitt’s performance is hard to judge fairly due to his being added to so many scenes in post-production, through computery magic.

Who SHOULD win: Mickey Rourke

Who WILL win: Sean Penn

Category: Actor in a Supporting Role

Slam-dunk, easy pick of the year.

Who SHOULD win: Heath Ledger

Who WILL win: Heath Ledger

Category: Actress in a Leading Role

Streep will almost certainly suffer from having been so often nominated and winning in the past. Winslet (previously nominated, never winning) has the added bonus of turning in two strong performances this season.

Who SHOULD win: Meryl Streep

Who WILL win: Kate Winslet

Category: Actress in a Supporting Role

Who SHOULD win: Viola Davis (Though Marisa Tomei was also wonderful.)

Who WILL win: Viola Davis

Category: Best Director

Another shitty set of choices. *sigh*

Who SHOULD win: Christopher Nolan, but he wasn’t nominated. Or John Patrick Shanley, also not nominated. So Danny Boyle wins by default!

Who WILL win: Danny Boyle

Category: Animated Feature

This should just be retitled “Best Pixar Feature”, to be honest.

Who SHOULD win: Wall-E

Who WILL win: Wall-E

Category: Art Direction

Who SHOULD win: Benjamin Button

Who WILL win: The Duchess (the Academy loves fluffy costumes)

Category: Bets Original Screenplay

AGAIN, The Dark Knight gets ignored.

Who SHOULD win: Wall-E

Who WILL win: Milk

Category: Best Adapted Screenplay

I’m not sure Frost/Nixon deserves a nod, because it was SO close to the play.

Who SHOULD win: Doubt

Who WILL win: Slumdog Millionaire

Category: Visual Effects

Who SHOULD win: Iron Man

Who WILL win: Benjamin Button (despite being a horror-show of Uncanny Valleys and liver spots)

Category: Make Up

Ledger’s Joker looks awesome, but making Brad Pitt ugly is probably harder to pull off.

Who SHOULD win: Benjamin Button

Who WILL win: Benjamin Button

There are a mess of other categories I either don’t care about or haven’t seen the films in.

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