Animadversions.

The weblog of Joshua Drescher

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McCain’s hypothetical first term.

May 15th, 2008 · No Comments · Politics

Flat taxes, bipartisanship and maybe even an end to the war:

John McCain, looking through a crystal ball to 2013 and the end of a prospective first term, sees “spasmodic” but reduced violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden dead or captured and government spending curbed by his ready veto pen.

The Republican presidential contender also envisions April’s annual angst replaced by a simpler flat tax, illegal immigrants living humanely under a temporary worker program, and political partisanship stemmed by weekly news conferences and British-style question periods with joint meetings of Congress.

Assuming for a moment he wins, I’d place the likelihood of these various ideas happening as:

Reduction in violence in Iraq/Afghanistan - High probability of success.

OBL dead or captured - Completely unpredictable. Even if he IS dead, we’re unlikely to ever know.

Reduced spending - Probable in a limited sense, doubtful we’ll see a reduction to pre-Bush spending levels.

Flat tax - Almost impossible. The Democratic Congress won’t even let it get out of committee, if it ever even gets that far.

Guest worker program - Mid-to-high probability of success. This could be a real “feel good” cooperative action between McCain and the Democratic Congress. I’d really love to see it happen.

Brit-style Q&A - Could happen once, deeply unlikely that it would ever happen a second time. American politics just isn’t set up to cope with that kind of verbal savagery (and our Congressional chambers lack specific mechanisms to keep people at least two sword-lengths apart). Also, it’s possible that McCain would have a volcanic meltdown, likely resulting in his forcible removal from the Capitol.

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