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Prognosticatin’ - Primary Edition

January 1st, 2008 · No Comments · Politics

My official predictions for the Newiowahampshire Premature Electoral Dysfunction Season are as follows:


Hillary wins Iowa by 5 points or more and moves on to a stronger showing in New Hampshire.

In both contests, Obama finishes second, Edwards a rather distant third.

[EDIT] As a quick caveat, if the weather is bad in Iowa, Obama’s chances plummet and it’ll be Clinton and Edwards running away with first and second place. Young people are going to be easily dissuaded from voting if road conditions are rough at all.

Biden and Richardson stay in the race hoping for a VP nod.


Romney wins Iowa in a squeaker with Giuliani, McCain and Huckabee clustered tightly behind.

McCain moves on to win big in New Hampshire.

Thompson will drop out soon after New Hampshire, having finished a rather distant fourth in both early contests.

Ron Paul pulls in 5% or more in New Hampshire - accepts a third party nomination in the weeks that follow.


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