Animadversions.

The weblog of Joshua Drescher

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PA Dems: 20% defective.

March 21st, 2008 · No Comments · Politics

A new Franklin and Marshall poll of likely PA voters shows that - if their preferred candidate is not the nominee - 20% of Democrats in the state claim they will defect to the GOP and vote for McCain in the general election.

If Clinton gets the nod, 20% of Obama’s supporters say they’ll switch sides and 3% say they won’t vote at all. If Obama is the nominee, 19% will vote for McCain and 13% won’t vote at all.

I find it pretty hard to believe that nearly a quarter (or an eighth, maybe - math is hard) of PA’s Democrats would flat-out refuse to vote for Obama no matter what and I imagine the data in this poll is heavily skewed by the emotional energy that’s building in the state ahead of next months major show-down and that it is extremely unlikely to work-out that way once the general election actually begins. Still, it’s a telling stat that jives with the national data we’ve seen throughout this contest.

Whoever the nominee turns out to be will need to fight a two-front war heading into November. One fight will obviously be against McCain, but the other will be the fight to rebuild their deeply fractured party.

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