Animadversions.

The weblog of Joshua Drescher

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Obama takes the lead in PA?

April 2nd, 2008 · No Comments · Politics

According to this poll, he’s now ahead 45% to 43%.

I can’t speak to the reliability of North Carolina’s “Public Policy Polling” group, but this does seem to reflect the general trend in polls elsewhere as of late.

A couple of thoughts:

1) Let’s assume (as now seems likely) that Obama will poll ahead of Clinton for at least a week leading into PA. If Clinton is able to pull off another narrow Texas/Ohio-style victory* after polling as the underdog going into the contest it seems likely that she’ll be able to recast her 20+ point meltdown in recent weeks as yet another come-from-behind win for her campaign.

2) If Clinton loses PA outright does anyone ACTUALLY believe she’ll quit at this point? If she loses PA, I halfway expect her skin to slough off and bat wings to spring from her back as she flies away from her PA primary-night reception screeching that the contest isn’t over yet.

*Obama’s eventual, caucus-fueled majority is immaterial to this situation, as it came so far after the actual primary that nobody even noticed or cared. Clinton got her momentum by coming out on top of the portions of the contest that were called that night.

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